Monday, May 7, 2007

Now It Can be Told

Editor's Note: I planned to get this posted a week ago but I was feeling poorly. All stats are current as of April 30th. I am deeply sorry for depriving you of this world-class information.

By David Jensen

The first month of the season is in the books. It was a strange April for the Minnesota Twins. The good news: The Twins rank at or near the top of the American League in several categories, and are in second place in the central which is quickly shaping into the toughest division in baseball. The bad news: Several key players have been inconsistent and it just seems like the team should be doing better.

For starters, the Twins have stayed fairly healthy thus far. Mauer, Cuddyer, and Morneau have not been injured. Hunter has had several close calls. He missed two games with a strained shoulder, and somehow only needed stitches after taking a pitch to the face. Luis Castillo has missed 11 games already due to his aching legs. Jeff Cirillo and Rondell White played in two and three games respectively before heading to the DL within the first week of play.

Offensively, Minnesota is third in the league in hitting, with a .271 average. The Twins hit only 15 homeruns while their opponents slugged 31 off Minnesota pitching. Joe Mauer is first in the AL in batting average (.369), fourth in on base percentage (.465), and seventh in walks (15). Torii Hunter is off to a great start. Hitting at .326, he leads the AL in doubles with 13. He also is best on the team in total bases (56), RBI (18), stolen bases (4) and slugging percentage (.651). He is on pace for another 30 home run, 100 RBI season. Cuddyer is hitting .290 with 17 RBI and 11 extra base hits, but has struck out 21 times.

The results have been mixed with the part-timers. In 17 games, Jason Tyner is hitting .313 with nine runs scored. Mike Redmond is at .259. Not a strong average, but he’s come through in some big spots and has 10 RBI in 14 games. In 20 games, Jason Kubel is hitting .261, six doubles, 12 RBI and no home runs.

Offensively, the infielders have been a major area of concern. Jason Bartlett is hitting a meager .239, but he’s always been what you might call a “defensive shortstop” with lower expectations at the plate. On April 19th, Nick Punto was hitting a woeful .143 with an OBP of .217. Since then, he’s hit .300 with an OBP of .391. Overall, he’s at .220 with more strikeouts than (11) than walks (10). Let’s hope he continues to heat up with the weather.

Overall, Justin Morneau had a good month. He has a .271 average, six homeruns, 50 total bases, 13 walks, 13 strikeouts and a .521 slugging percentage. His trouble has been his inconsistency. Here is a timeline of his April: 2nd and 3rd; 4-7, 1 homerun, two RBI. 4th-10th; 2-17 (.118), one homerun, three RBI, four strikeouts and 4 walks. 11th-21st; 14-40 (.350), two homeruns, seven RBI, seven extra base hits, one strikeout and five walks. 22nd-29th: 6-28 (.214), two homeruns, three RBI, six strikeouts and three walks. If the Twins want to succeed in the central, he’ll have to limit these slumps as the summer progresses.

Probably the biggest concern coming into the season was the starting rotation. Surprisingly enough, the top three have come through in fine style. Johan Santana went 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA. He leads the AL in strikeouts with 45 and is second in innings pitched at 40. He hasn’t always been sharp, but history shows that he doesn’t become unstoppable until about Memorial Day. Minnesota’s best starter in April was new acquisition Ramon Ortiz. Posting a 3-1 record with a 2.57 ERA, good for seventh in the AL, the veteran has become a solid number two.

It’s been a very encouraging month for Carlos Silva. He’s 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He hasn’t looked like Cy Young, but he does resemble the reliable number three form 2003-05. Averaging 5.2 innings per start, he hasn’t given up more than three runs in a game. He’s given the Twins a chance to win every game he’s started.

Following the likes of Juan Castro and Tony Batista as a veteran pickup who hasn’t produced is the loathsome and greasy Sidney Ponson. This latter-day Moe Green limped to a 1-3 record with an 8.44 ERA. He did not record a quality start* and pitched a full six innings only once.

As it has been for the last six years, the bullpen is among the league’s best. As a unit, they’re 5-3 with an ERA of 3.48 which is second in the AL. Juan Rincon led the bullpen with an ERA of 1.86. He went 1-0 with a .256 batting average against, six walks, 12 strikeouts and allowed a run in only one of his ten appearances. Pat Neshek posted a 2.25 ERA. The league hit just .140 off him while he struck out 12 and walked four. In 12 games, he gave up three runs, all on one swing by Raul Ibanez.

Matt Guerrier performed well in the middle innings. Opposing batters hit a mere .111 off Matt as he struck out seven and walked three. He pitched at least two innings in five of his ten appearances.

Joe Nathan is another player whose inconsistency is troubling. He has a very respectable 2.19 ERA, but has given up 16 hits in 12.1 innings. In 2006, he gave up just 38 hits in 68.1 innings. Last year, he wouldn’t give teams even a small chance to win. In April, he had four 1-2-3 innings and just one in a save situation. With a 1-1 record, he hasn’t collapsed often, but he is walking a very thin line.

In the field, the Twins are the class of the AL. They top the league in fielding percentage (.989), put outs (678) and fewest errors (11). Seven position players did not commit an error. Dorn has an astonishing six outfield assits.

Minnesota finished the month at 14-11, 7-7 at home, 7-4 on the road. The top four teams in the central are within 2.5 games of each other**. If Minnesota can play the quality baseball they’re capable of consistently, there’s no reason why they can’t hang around all summer.

*A quality start is defined by the low standards of 6 innings and 3 or fewer runs allowed.

**Won’t someone please help the poor Royals?

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